Comparison between farmers’ perceptions of climate change with meteorological data in Kunduz River Basin, Afghanistan

Abstract

This study aimed to investigate farmers perceptions of climate change, variability and its impacts and adaptation strategies based on the household survey information collected from randomly 302 farmers of Kunduz River Basin Afghanistan. interviews were conducted with household heads using survey questionnaires in four targeted provinces. An overwhelming majority (Kunduz 66.67%, Takhar 70.49%, Baghlan 80%, and Bamyan 77.8%) of the respondents perceived warming in recent years with comparing to past three decades. Most of households (Kunduz 52.94%, Takhar 72.13%, Baghlan 76%, and Bamyan 74.4%) believes precipitation has been decreased based on their life experience. However, statistical and linear trend analyses performed to examine positive or negative trend of historical climate data. The trend analysis of maximum temperature (Tmax) showed rising of 0.0092˚C/Y, 0.0214˚C/Y,0.0197˚C/Y and 0.025˚C/Y for Kunduz,Takhar, Baghlan and Bamyan respectively. Likewise, at these stations minimum temperature (Tmin) indicated higher warming of 0.0088˚C/Y, 0.0115˚C/Y,0.0223˚C/Y and 0.0142˚C/Y respectively. The precipitation demonstrated strong downward trend in upper catchment stations namely Takhar and Bamyan provinces which dominated by Hindukush mountain. The study found that the farmers perception of climate change was mostly aligned with respect to observed temperature and precipitation trends. The farmers are particularly vulnerable to climate change risks and frequent weather events such as erratic rainfall and severe droughts, due to lack of access to enough resource to cope.